000
AXNT20 KNHC 151050
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W...
TO 4S26W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S38W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W ALONG 
THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF FRENCH 
GUIANA...AND IN NORTHERN GUYANA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N59W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL 
U.S.A. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 
FROM 18N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 101W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED COMPLETELY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN CURRENT 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE GFS MODEL FOR THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECASTS
AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS 
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENT SATELLITE-DERIVED 
WINDS MORE OR LESS PROVE THE GFS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT CORRECT 
AT THIS TIME. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL 
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 70W MOVING 
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE AREA...IN THE 
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...AND 
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 73W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 29N58W TO 25N59W.
THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 44W 
AND 57W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE LINE THAT GOES FROM 28N60W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER TO 21N34W AND 7N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT