000
AXNT20 KNHC 150605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 18W...
TO 4S30W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S37W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 
4N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N 
BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE EAST OF 5W...
FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W...FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W
AND 44W...AND IN THE WESTERN HALF OF COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL 
U.S.A. INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MIDDLE 
TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL 
PLAINS OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 101W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N73W...ACROSS 
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE GFS MODEL FOR THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECASTS
AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS 
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IT CURVES TOWARD THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. CURRENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS MORE OR LESS 
PROVE THE GFS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT CORRECT AT THIS TIME.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST OF 70W MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE AREA...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...TO THE NORTH OF THE 
LINE THAT RUNS FROM 16N68W TO 15N80W...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO 
THE WEST OF 80W...AND WITHIN THE 60 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 26N60W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 56W/58W FROM 21N TO 27N. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 57W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT