000
AXNT20 KNHC 141656
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG FROM LIBERIA AT 7N10W TO 1N20W 1S30W 
TO BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 16W-20W...FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 
21W-24W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 34W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 41W-46W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 29N72W PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE 
COASTS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA...EXTENDING 90 
NM TO SEA. MORE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF FROM TAMPICO 
MEXICO TO N FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE TEXAS COAST AND 
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS IN 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG 
THE COAST ON N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...S OF 
HAITI AND JAMAICA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 
29N72W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS 
FURTHER E ALONG 32N56W 26N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
36N38W. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS FROM 32N8W TO 26N16W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
N OF 20N E OF 30W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC TROUGH. EXPECT...THE 
FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA