000 AXNT20 KNHC 141047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N10W 3N17W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W INTO E BRAZIL S OF THE EQUATOR. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING FROM 7N51W TO 1N46W. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-38W...AND FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 7W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N20W TO 1N29W AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 38W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR SE OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS NE MEXICO AND E TEXAS TO ALONG THE NW GULF COAST ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N84W AND A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N91W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. SE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF TO INLAND OVER THE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO W OF A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE WITH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW GULF MON NIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS EARLY TUE THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT STALLS OUT OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL WATERS TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 13N E OF 69W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OFF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N82W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS NEAR THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING TO 27N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W AND A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N BETWEEN 25W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W TO THE NW COAST OF AFRICA SUPPORTING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 32N9W JUST SE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N19W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 27N E OF 20W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW