000
AXNT20 KNHC 140534
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N9W 3N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
21W INTO E BRAZIL S OF THE EQUATOR. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING FROM 6N52W ALONG 2N48W TO S OF 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W REMAINING OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF 
LINE FROM W AFRICA NEAR 7N11W 3N17W TO 2N26W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N4W 
TO 2N11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE W 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 42W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF 
WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR SE OF LINE 
FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO 
IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS TO 
ALONG THE NW GULF COAST ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF 
EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE 
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N84W AND A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W 
ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SE 
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERS THE GULF BANKING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF NE 
MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILING 
ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW GULF 
MON NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE N/CENTRAL 
GULF BY LATE TUE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NE GULF BY LATE WED. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE 
BASIN GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 13N E OF 74W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OFF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N82W. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI 
WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS NEAR 
THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING TO 
27N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE 
FRONT. THE SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 
27N63W ALONG 23N70W E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W AND A SECOND 
1025 MB HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 25W-50W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 37W TO 
THE NW COAST OF AFRICA SUPPORTING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N12W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 
25N19W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 28N E OF 23W TO OVER 
THE CANARY ISLANDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW