000
AXNT20 KNHC 131739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG FROM LIBERIA AT 5N10W TO 3S20W 4S25W 
1S35W TO BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF 
THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 9W-11W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-EQ BETWEEN 20W-30W...AND FROM 
3S-5N BETWEEN 30W-53W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 
29N75W PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHERN 
MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA...EXTENDING 90 NM TO SEA. MORE 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TUE EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ALONG 
THE COAST ON N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...S OF 
HAITI AND JAMAICA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO 
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 
29N75W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS 
FURTHER E ALONG 32N60W 29N60W 23N65W. A 1038 MB HIGH IS WELL N 
OF THE AREA NEAR 42N39W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER 
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N13W TO 26N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS N OF 20N E OF 40W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. 
EXPECT...BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA