000 AXNT20 KNHC 131050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N9W 2N15W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO NE BRAZIL S OF THE EQUATOR. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N52W ALONG 4N49W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 7N AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 4N. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 40W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR SE OF LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS TO ALONG THE NW GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N84W AND A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF WATERS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 85W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERS THE W GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF COAST MON NIGHT REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TUE MORNING THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT STALLS OUT OVER THE NE GULF WED AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL REMNANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 73W...FROM 14N-28N BETWEEN 73W-79W... AND S OF 15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS NEAR THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N61W EXTENDING ALONG 28N63W TO 25N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 24N69W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO NEAR 21N74W. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT/SHEAR AXIS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N77W AND A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IS A WEAKENING CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N40W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N49W ALONG 22N43W TO NEAR 20N38W. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 33W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE E ATLC IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N E OF 32W TO THE NW COAST OF AFRICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N14W TO 28N22W WHERE TI DISSIPATES ALONG 26N27W TO 28N33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW