000 AXNT20 KNHC 121750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT MAR 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W WESTWARD ALONG 01N20W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 110 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO MODERATE SFC WINDS ARE OVER THE BASIN...ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS THIS HAPPENS...INCREASING RETURN FLOW UP TO 20 KT WILL BE EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE NW BASIN...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF HONDURAS DUE TO THE PREVIOUS PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SHOW 5-15 KT WINDS FROM THE NE. THIS FLOW IS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ENHANCING SOME CLUSTERS OF WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N73W TO 13N61W. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC REGION ALONG 32N66W AND EXTENDS SW TO ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ALONG 25N68W 20N74W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS NEAR 25N40W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N47W TO NEAR 22N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 35W-44W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA