000
AXNT20 KNHC 121112
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 5N9W TO 2N20W...CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 1S40W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S47W. 
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL 
CLUSTERS FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W...
FROM 1S TO 4N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W...FROM 2S AT THE BRAZIL COAST 
TO 2N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 47W 
AND 52W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA...AND FROM 4N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 56W AND 60W IN NORTHWESTERN SURINAME AND THE NORTHERN 
HALF OF GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1S TO 4N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 64W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W...AND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES A TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 
CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND THE ACKLINS IN THE BAHAMAS TO 
EASTERN CUBA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM EASTERN
CUBA TO 18N80W INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS 
NEAR 28N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM HONDURAS TO 
17N BETWEEN 83W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
  
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 73W
IN CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 15N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N63W AND 15N69W.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
17N TO 20N...BETWEEN 60W AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 64W...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N45W IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N50W 24N42W 19N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
19N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 23N44W 18N48W WITH APPARENTLY LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH
A SHEAR AXIS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 36W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 30W.
A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N11W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
GOES FROM 30N36W TO 23N28W TO 18N14W IN MAURITANIA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT