000
AXNT20 KNHC 120543
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 5N9W TO 2N20W...CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S47W. STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM
2N TO 3N BETWEEN 2W AND 4W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 
16W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 4S TO 1N BETWEEN
34W AND 43W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 55W AND 48W FROM SURINAME INTO GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 67W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 67W...AND FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES A TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE CROOKED ISLAND PASSAGE IN THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA TO 17N84W INTO 
EASTERN HONDURAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N90W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N70W 24N75W...AND TO THE NORTH 
OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
  
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND 70W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR AXIS. OTHER BROKEN
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. OTHER CLUSTERS
OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM THE GREATER 
ANTILLES TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 67W...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N45W IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
28N50W 24N42W 19N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
19N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 23N44W 19N48W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W WITH A SHEAR AXIS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 36W. BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 30W.
A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N13W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N31W TO 20N26W...ACROSS THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT