000 AXNT20 KNHC 112338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 2N17W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W CONTINUING ALONG 2S34W 5S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 26W-32W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-1S BETWEEN 32W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N BETWEEN 36W-50W INTO INLAND BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXTREMELY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED OVER SRN FLORIDA DUE TO CONVERGENCE AROUND THE WRN BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND FAR WRN ATLC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT OVER THE FAR WRN GULF SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF NEW ORLEANS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BESIDES SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SRN GULF. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH WINDS UP OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE ERN GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING SE RETURN FLOW TO BUILD ACROSS THE WRN GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD AND WRN ATLC CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT LIES FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 84W-89W ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE N. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING INTO INLAND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALOFT...MOSTLY DRY AIR IS IMPACTING THE AREA AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE E ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. EXPECT REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND THE FAR W ATLC WATERS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N72W TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BETWEEN 48W-68W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N46W WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION 1015 MB LOW NEAR 26N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N48W 24N45W 18N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY NE OF THE SYSTEM FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 39W-47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ELSEWHERE. A ZONAL WLY SUBTROPICAL JET IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED OVER WRN GUINEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON