000 AXNT20 KNHC 102339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM NRN LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG 2N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO NRN BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 30W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS EVENING WITH AXIS NOW EXTENDING JUST W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING INTO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS OF 2100 UTC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NOW LIES ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING FAIR...STABLE CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE FAR SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT LEAVING FAIR AND COOLER CONDITIONS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE AREA SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN ATLC CAUSING A WEAKENER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AROUND A 1012 MB LOW ON THE COAST OF NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW MADE ITS WAY JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS CROSSING NRN FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N77W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO WRN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME VERY STRONG...ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 60W-73W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 28N50W SUPPORTING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N54W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N46W 24N40W 21N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 29N49W 26N48W 21N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CLOSER AND E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 43W-53W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED E OF THE FRONT TO 44W...N OF 29N. FARTHER E...ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 35N18W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A RECENT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE NW OF THE CENTER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG IT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA CENTER S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 9N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON