000 AXNT20 KNHC 101746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE 7N12W...CONTINUING SW ALONG 1N20W 3S30W 1S40W TO ACROSS BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN ENERGETIC MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N82W 25N85W 21N88W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN 100 NM FROM 24N-28N...AND ITS ALIGNED WITH A STRONG LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THIS LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING FAIRLY QUICK ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND STRAITS. GUSTY 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING TO GALE FORCE S OF 21N W OF 94W AND GENERATING SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. ALTHOUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE ESE GULF. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA... SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT SURFACE... A RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED OVER THE AREA... MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN E OF 72W...BECOMING ESSENTIALLY TRADE WINDS W OF 72W. A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL FLOW DOT THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS IN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND IT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRE-FRONTAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INVADE THE FAR WESTERN ATLC W OF 78W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE CONUS SEABOARD LOOK FOR THE FRONT TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS W OF 73W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1010 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 31N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 34N60W TO THE LOW CENTER...CONTINUING SSW ALONG 25N40W TO 20N50W. CONSEQUENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 22N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND WITHIN 70 NM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE LOW CENTER. I COMBINATION WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW CENTER...MAINLY FOCUSED FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 46W-54W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 29N E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 43W GENERATING SEAS 10 TO 18 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A CUT-OFF LOW WOBBLING NEAR 27N50W. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECT THE SURFACE FEATURES TO LOOSE MOMENTUM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLC...A 1008 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 34N17W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR AREA ALONG 30N13W 27N16W 25N20W. THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY PRODUCING SCATTED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW SUPPORTS THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION LINGERING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA