000
AXNT20 KNHC 101147
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST THU MAR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 5N9W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 22W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 5S38W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 16W...AND FROM
1S TO 2N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 05S TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH 
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA IN THE U.S.A...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
22N. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST
FROM 20N TO 21N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 23N. A RIDGE PASSES 
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 
21N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 88W
IN THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF 
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TOWARD THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 
80W...IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT
ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
THEY COVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH 
OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
32N52W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N47W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER TO 21N53W AND 
21N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER 
TO 21N33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 42W AND 56W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N41W 22N31W 26N16W BEYOND 31N10W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
BETWEEN 39W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING 
FROM 10 FEET TO 16 FEET IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 36W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 34N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND TO 26N27W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT