000
AXNT20 KNHC 090003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 5N9W...WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF 
BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 6W12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS.


ALONG 06N10W 02N20W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND LYING OVER THE NE COASTLINE OF BRAZIL NEAR 
02S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 
19W-25W NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 4N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN 17W-28W ABOUT 180 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE BISECTS THE 
ITCZ S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING N-NE TO 2N42W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS 
THE MIDWEST...WITH A LONG WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN 
EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO ENTER THE NW GULF. THIS 
FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING CONVERGENCE IN THE FAR N 
CENTRAL BASIN...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE QUICKLY 
MOVING INLAND BETWEEN 85W-95W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS 
BETWEEN EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND 
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN IS INDUCING A FAIRLY 
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN...GENERATING 
ESE 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-93W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
LONG WAVE CONTINUES TO ENTER THE BASIN...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST 
THE LONG WAVE WILL PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES 
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
GULF GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE 
OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING 
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR COLOMBIA. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEARLY STNRY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW AND WESTERN ATLC. THE 
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE THIS FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
AS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 32N65W TO 26N68W. SCATTRED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 15 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. FARTHER EAST IN 
TO THE CENTRAL ATLC....A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N51W WITH A NEAR 
STNRY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 25N40W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING 
WITHIN 170 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WITHIN THIS REGION OF 
CONVECTION...ESE WINDS FROM 20 KT UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE 
INFERRED. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
ON TOP OF THE 1012 MB LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
LINGER NEAR THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY 
EXPECT CONVECTION TO LINGER ALONG THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY 
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA