000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N10W 02N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND LYING OVER THE NE COASTLINE OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 19W-25W NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 4N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN 17W-28W ABOUT 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE BISECTS THE ITCZ S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATERRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING N-NE TO 2N42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING MAINLY DOMINATES THE GULF AT THIS TIME. STRONGER SRLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT ARE FOUND IN MID-EASTERN PART OF THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. MOST OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LIE IN THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTH WESTERN PART OF THE GULF BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL STILL BE UNDER SURFACE RIDGING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 20-25 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMAINATES THE REGION PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF HAITI. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO BANKING ARE ALONG THE COSTA RICAN AND PANAMA COASTS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO 32N72W TO A BASE OVER CUBA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FARTHER EAST...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 18N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DISPLACED EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CUT-OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 31N55W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 23N-34N BETWEEN 35W-51W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N35W TO 16N18W. A DEEP LAYER LOW IS CENTERED SE OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA WITH A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N19W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF 32N ALONG 32N11W TO THE EASTERNMOST CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NAR/JA