000
AXNT20 KNHC 071721
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON MAR 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N20W TO EQ30W TO 
NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 8W-20W...FROM 5S-4N BETWEEN 20W-40W...AND 
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 44W-54W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N80W 22N88W. 
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N91W 
19N92W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. SURFACE RIDGING 
DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. 
WINDS ARE PRIMARILY ONLY 10-15 KT. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
REMAIN OVER THE GULF MAINLY N OF 24N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W.  
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS FOR...SURFACE SE RETURN FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL WITH 20 KT WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S HISPANIOLA 
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-74W...AND ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA 
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 80W-83W...MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
WESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA. EXPECT 
IN 24 HOURS FOR...A THE FRONT TO MOVE E AND DISSIPATE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO THE N BAHAMAS 
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N75W 23N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N53W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE 
LOW TO 32N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 21N54W 18N60W 18N63W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 
39W-50W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 22W-40W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS 
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N12W TO 28N16W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 38N18W 
SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E...FOR THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC LOW TO REMAIN STATIONARY...AND FOR THE THE E ATLANTIC 
FRONT TO ALSO MOVE E. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA