000
AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON MAR 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
28W...TO 1S38W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S42W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO AND
INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND 
GEORGIA...INTO NORTH FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N82W
IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
24N102W IN CENTRAL MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W
FROM CUBA NEAR 23N TO 28N ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE 
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N75W 27N78W 23N81W.
THIS INCLUDES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W.
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EVERYWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD LAND...AND
NOW IT STRETCHES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHWESTERN BELIZE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 23N82W IN CUBA TO 20N85W...
TO 17N90W IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE 
NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 68W...IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA 
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN 
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 28N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 43W AND 63W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 31N49W TO 28N54W
INTO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N56W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER
TO 23N55W AND 21N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 39W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG BERMUDA TO 
29N68W TO PUERTO RICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N36W 
26N31W 16N22W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 
30W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 38N18W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 38N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT