000 AXNT20 KNHC 062344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N11W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 19W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 06/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO VENICE THEN SW INTO THE GULF ALONG 125N85W TO 22N90W AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR VILLAHERMOSA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND GULF WITH AXIS FROM GEORGIA SE TO THE SW GULF AND ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. CONSIDERABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. A PAIR OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE OTHER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...ARE ALSO PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WEST OF THE FRONT IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE CHIVELA PASS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSIDERABLE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED NW OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W DOWN THE SPINE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT OCCURRING OVER A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 78W... INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 06/2100 UTC FROM CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP E-NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N57W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 21N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NEAR CUT-OFF LOW FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF 32N54W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 24N-35N BETWEEN 44W-58W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED E OF 40W WITH AXIS FROM 32N37W TO 20N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN