000
AXNT20 KNHC 061742
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N11W TO 02N20W TO 00N28W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N13W TO 02N26W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ABOUT 15 KT 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 24N93W. 
A JET CUTS ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 25N87W THROUGH JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS OF 60 TO 70 KT. AT THE 
SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO 24N90W TO 19N95.5W AND THEN CONTINUES AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS MEXICO TO NEAR 23N102W. THE COLD IS 
EASILY IDENTIFIED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS LOCATED 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR 30N83W TO 25N85W TO 22N90W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE 
SQUALL LINE.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR INDICATES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND 
IS STRONGEST W OF ABOUT 72W. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED 
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. FAIR WEATHER COVERS ALL OF THE AREA 
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW 
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SE GULF OF MEXICO SQUALL LINE 
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH 
THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N74W TO EASTERN CUBA. MOVING 
DOWNSTREAM THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N59W...NEARLY 
STATIONARY. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SSW TO 
NEAR 18N62W. A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT LIES E OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 
DIFFLUENCE AIDING LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
LOCATED N OF 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. A SURFACE IS LOCATED FROM 
32N51W TO 23N56W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE AREA IS LOCATED N OF 28N E OF 30W TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE 
TROPICS FROM 10N TO 22N E OF ABOUT 55W WITH WINDS MEASURING UP 
TO 80 KT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB