000
AXNT20 KNHC 061133
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN MAR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
7N12W...CONTINUING SW ALONG 3N20W EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN 12W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE 
TROUGH...NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN STATES AND INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE EXTENDING SW TO THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N84W 25N88W 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR NE BASIN N 
OF 25N E OF 88W WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN 40 NM OF A 
SQUALL LINE ANALYZED ALONG 30N82W 24N85W 21N91W. FURTHERMORE... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN 
RESPONSE OF THE COMING SYSTEM. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT 
ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GENERATING SEAS UP TO 7 FT. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS 
THE BASIN. GENTLE-MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT 
THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING CYCLONICALLY AROUND 
THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR COLOMBIA. THE FLOW ALSO TURNS SSE IN THE 
NW BASIN N OF 16N W OF 80W...AS THE PRESSURE FIELD DECREASES IN 
THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING 
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA. THIS FRONT 
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE FAR 
NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEST AND NW 
ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 58W. ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW 10-20 KT IS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. A NEARLY STATIONARY 
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N50W BECOMING A 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SSW TO NEAR 23N56W. THIS BOUNDARY IS 
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WAVE GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-55W. 
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL INDUCE 
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR 25N53W IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N40W TO 23N33W. OTHER THAN 
THE WIND SHIFT AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS...THIS SYSTEM HAS NO UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT AND THEREFORE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA