000
AXNT20 KNHC 060531
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN MAR 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W...CONTINUING SW ALONG 4N20W EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE 
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A 
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA EXTENDING SW TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 
27N90W 23N94W 18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 84W-90W WITH THE 
STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN 40 NM OF A SQUALL LINE ANALYZED 
ALONG 30N85W 25N88W 22N93W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT N OF 22N GENERATING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECREASING BELOW GALE CRITERIA BY 12Z SUN. IN THE 
MEAN TIME...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND MOVE 
OUT OF THE AREA SUN EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS 
THE BASIN. GENTLE-MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE 
AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING AROUND THE COASTAL 
WATERS NEAR COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH CONVECTION 
AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEST ATLC 
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 58W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
10-20 KT IS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT 
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N52W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 
25N58W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH/WAVE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 
24N BETWEEN 50W-58W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL 
FEATURE WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR 25N53W IN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N35W 
TO 23N30W. OTHER THAN THE WIND CURVATURE AROUND THE TROUGH 
AXIS...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 
LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA