000 AXNT20 KNHC 051123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT MAR 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W...CONTINUING SW ALONG 3N20W EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE GULF ARE INDICATING A SE WIND COMPONENT RANGING FROM LIGHT/GENTLE TO MODERATE/STRONG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-89W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE AT ABOUT 15 KT AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF 85W. CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY FAIR. NEVERTHELESS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTING UP IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY...GENERATING MODERATE-STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE CRITERIA IN ITS WAKE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 14N66W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SHARP CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 16N. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE AXIS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE NE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. GENTLE-MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS IN COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH MOVES EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE REACHES DOWN TO OUR WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING GUSTY NE WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 23N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 31N56W EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N60W 25N63W TO 22N67W. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 24N. THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS DISPLACED FARTHER EAST OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK SITTING ON TOP OF IT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWED STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET STREAK SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-32N BETWEEN 55W-63W. THIS AREA OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL START MOVING EASTWARD WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AROUND THE AXIS...AND BECOMING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO 25N33W. OTHER THAN THE WIND CURVATURE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA