000 AXNT20 KNHC 050557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W...S-WESTWARD ALONG 1N20W EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 32W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE GULF ARE INDICATING A SE WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND 22N86W. THIS AXIS SEPARATES LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS W OF THE AXIS FROM MODERATE/STRONG WINDS E OF THE AXIS N OF 25N. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 130 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 26N. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE AT ABOUT 15 KT AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF 86W. CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY FAIR. NEVERTHELESS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTING UP IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON SAT GENERATING MODERATE-STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE CRITERIA IN ITS WAKE. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 20 NM ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS THAT ENTERS THE BASIN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W EXTENDING SE TO 17N84W...THEN IT CONTINUES NE TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND 20N74W. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN...ANALYZED FROM THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 12N66W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 16N. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. GENTLE-MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TURNING AROUND THE COASTAL WATERS IN COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1042 MB HIGH MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING. THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE REACHES DOWN TO OUR WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING GUSTY NE WINDS 20-30 KT N OF 23N W OF 69W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52W BECOMING STNRY NEAR 30N57W TO 22N70W. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED AND IT CURRENTLY LACKS OF NEARBY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 24N. A FAIRLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET IS E OF THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 57W-63W. THIS AREA OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL START MOVING EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AROUND THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N40W TO 23N32W. OTHER THAN THE WIND CURVATURE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA