000
AXNT20 KNHC 041132
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST 
OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W...WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W TO NE 
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 3S-6N BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS 
THE BASIN THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE 
AREA. AT SURFACE...LIGHT TO FRESH ESE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS 
THE REGION...BECOMING 20-25 KT E OF 89W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS FROM A DISSIPATED BOUNDARY CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN 
BASIN FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 83W-90W. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED 
TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WEATHER IS IN 
STORE FOR THE NW BASIN STARTING SAT MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF 
IT AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. AT SURFACE...WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS 
REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W. OTHERWISE...FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW 
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-68W. WEAK CONVECTION IS EXPECTED 
TO LINGER IN THE NW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO OTHER 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 1042 MB HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE CONUS THIS 
MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING NE 
WINDS 15-25 KT OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 67W. A NEARLY 
STNRY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING SW 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 25N65W 
20N74W. THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE 
TO DRIFT E IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED 
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W GENERATING NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK 1019 MB LOW IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 29N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW 
CENTER...AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ALONG 29N36W TO 25N35W. 
ASIDE THE CYCLONIC WIND TURN AROUND THE LOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS 
LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO LINGER NEAR THE 
SAME AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE DURING 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA