000 AXNT20 KNHC 040537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0525 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 5N10W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 30W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...LIGHT TO FRESH ESE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION...BECOMING 20-30 KT E OF 90W. A DISSIPATING 1013 MB LOW LINGERS AROUND 27N92W PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N88W 22N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 140 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 9Z FRI WHILE DRIFTING NW. THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. AT SURFACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO JAMAICA...THEN NE TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AROUND 20N74W. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-68W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING NE WINDS 15-25 KT OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 67W. A NEARLY STNRY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W EXTENDING SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 25N65W 20N74W. THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N37W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 25N35W TO 22N40W. ASIDE THE CYCLONIC WIND TURN AROUND THE LOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO LINGER NEAR THE SAME AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA