000
AXNT20 KNHC 031145
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST THU MAR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 2N20W 2N28W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 33W...TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. SCATTERED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S
BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 30W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N
BETWEEN 30W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT/
STATIONARY FRONT. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FILLED WITH UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER MAYAGUANA
IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W...BEYOND WESTERN
CUBA...TO 23N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 23N86W TO 27N91W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
COVER THE AREA FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W...
AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SOME AREAS OF LOW 
CLOUDS...FOG...AND HAZE ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ALONG 61W/62W FROM 10N TO 
18N...AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 66W/67W FROM 10N TO 17N HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM AT 
LEAST 64W/65W AROUND 02/1900 UTC. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 64W FROM 20N TO 32N SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES FROM 32N61W TO 26N66W...ACROSS MAYAGUANA
IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W...BEYOND WESTERN
CUBA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N
TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 21N63W 25N54W BEYOND 
32N48W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N40W TO 28N37W 
22N40W 15N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
11N35W 22N30W BEYOND 32N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

THE 105 PM TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE
ON THURSDAY MARCH 03...DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM UPGRADE.

$$
MT