000
AXNT20 KNHC 030553
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU MAR 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 3N20W 3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 43W...TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 
11W...AND FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE 
SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 51W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL WATERS 
OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N50W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 1S BETWEEN 42W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT/
STATIONARY FRONT. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FILLED WITH UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER CENTRAL 
CUBA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 24N87W AND CONTINUING
TO 27N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 25N
BETWEEN 86W AND 87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N85W 28N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THE 24-HOUR 
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC WAS 
0.71 INCHES IN GUADELOUPE. OTHER RAINFALL REPORTS WERE ROUGHLY 
0.10 OR LESS IN SOME OF THE OTHER EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 10N TO 16N HAS BEEN 
MOVING WESTWARD FROM AT LEAST 64W/65W AROUND 02/1900 UTC.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. OTHER CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT GOES
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 66W FROM 20N TO 32N SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES FROM 31N61W TO 25N70W...ACROSS CROOKED 
ISLAND AND THE ACKLINS IN THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA INTO 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
60W AND 67W...AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND WESTERN CUBA.
A EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N39W TO 30N36W AND 24N38W...BECOMING
STATIONARY AND CONTINUING FROM 24N38W TO 19N44W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 9N37W 16N36W 24N31W BEYOND 32N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

THE 105 PM TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE
ON THURSDAY MARCH 03...DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM UPGRADE.

$$
MT