000
AXNT20 KNHC 022353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED MAR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N20W TO 2N32W TO 
EQ40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER LIBERIA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 7W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W...AND FROM 
3S-4N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N83W 27N91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-24N 
BETWEEN 80W-83W. 15-20 KT ENE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF 
AND FLORIDA N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE S OF THE 
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING 
NW WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO REMAIN 
STATIONARY AND DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS N OF 
THE FRONT TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RELATIVELY SLACK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER 
MOST OF THE AREA... WITH 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W GENERATING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 73W-78W. PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 65W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW WINDS WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 25N70W TO 
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 62W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N39W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 
30N37W 23N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 17N46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 33W-37W.   
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC 
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W 
SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE 
SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA