000
AXNT20 KNHC 021154
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST WED MAR 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 4N15W 2N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 24W...TO 8S30W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO 
A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM 
TEXAS TO MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT NOW PASSES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS 
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF...CURVING TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO GULF
COAST NEAR 21N97W. 
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED AND/OR HAVE BEEN MOVING
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 
24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
TO THE EAST OF 84W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND NOW IS IN THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N69W...ACROSS ELEUTHERA 
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 
23N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE 
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGER RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N58W...TO 23N70W...INTO THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
29N42W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 
34W AND 50W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 25N41W
17N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N46W TO 10N57W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 15N TO 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 
36W AND 41W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N60W 20N40W 27N26W...AND 
CURVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SAHARA INTO AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE 
IS ALONG 13N40W 20N32W BEYOND 32N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

THE 105 PM TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE
ON THURSDAY MARCH 03...DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM UPGRADE.

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MT