000 AXNT20 KNHC 012355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE MAR 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 4N8W 1N20W 1S30W AND GOING INTO BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. A LARGE BURST OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF GUINEA FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 4E-1E. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 19W AND 28W ABOUT 250 NM N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN 28W AND 31W ABOUT 230 NM S OF THE ITCZ. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT THAT IS CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDS TO THE CENTER OF THE GULF ALONG 28N83W 26N89W AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N92W AND GOING INLAND INTO MEXICO AT THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE PORTION OF EASTERN GULF FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM BEHIND THE REST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ABOUT 50 NM AHEAD OF IT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LIE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PROVIDING DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER TO EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT REMAINS NE OF THE BASIN ACROSS THE NW ATLC. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INFLUENCED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 16N93W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE WINDS GAIN A CYCLONIC COMPONENT AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NRN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR WRN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 220 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 69W N OF 28N IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT. TO THE E...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS NE AND OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N57W. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-55W SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 35N38W FROM WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N36W 22N39W THEN BECOMING A DYING STATIONARY FRONT AT 13N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND LIES BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N39W ENDING NEAR 21N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ABOUT 130 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 25N BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR/CW