000 AXNT20 KNHC 011153 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE MAR 01 2011 ...CORRECTED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE INFORMATION ABOUT AN OUTAGE... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SOUTHERN IVORY COAST CURVING TO 5N14W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S28W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S42W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 40W AND 42W FROM THE COAST TO 1S. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5S TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 24W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...ENDING IN THE WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N88W 29N83W...AND THEN WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N83W BEYOND 32N77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N80W... ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N84W 26N91W 18N95W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST 80W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT EVERYWHERE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W...FROM 20N TO PANAMA. THE 32N59W-TO-25N72W-24N85W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A NEW AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS SOME IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 21N49W TO 17N50W. A SECOND AND SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 24N38W TO 21N40W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE GALE CENTER IS NEAR 33N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N38W AND 24N39W... 17N48W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER TO 31N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N36W TO 20N39W 15N42W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 15N42W TO 10N45W 5N50W...CURVING THROUGH CENTRAL FRENCH GUIANA...SOUTHERN SURINAME...AND CENTRAL GUYANA...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA. THE SHEAR AXIS HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME SINCE YESTERDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N59W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 46W... EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 32N59W HIGH CENTER TO 25N72W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 12N34W 24N31W BEYOND 32N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE THE 105 PM TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE TUESDAY MARCH 01 AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY MARCH 03... DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM UPGRADE. $$ MT