000
AXNT20 KNHC 281715
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1630 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 5N ALONG 
2N10W 1N20W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 
3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 3W AND 15W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED OFF THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL ALONG 3N40W 2N43W TO 2S44N 
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SE 
AND WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NW OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...COLD FRONT ENTERED THE NW GULF WATERS ANALYZED 
FROM 30N94W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N96W WITH 
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO 24N97W.  CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT.  N UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS SUPPORTING THIS 
SYSTEM.  A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 22N97W WITH LOW CLOUD COVER.  THE MAJORITY OF THE 
GULF IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH DRY SUBSIDENT AIR 
AND WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO PUSH SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF 
FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 
16N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W.  DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT 
EVERYWHERE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BANKING MOISTURE AND 
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER W PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN 
NICARAGUA.  A STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA CAUSING 
SOUTHWARD TURNING OF THE TRADE WINDS INTO PANAMA.  THE STRONG 
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO PUSH THE CLOUDS INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1027 
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N67W PROVIDING SURFACE RIDGING TO THE 
AREA W OF 50W.  COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  TWO 1013 MB SURFACE 
LOWS CENTERED NEAR 27N40W AND 24N40W...THE FIRST BEING THE MORE 
DOMINANT.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N42W 31N39W 
25N35W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 14N42W...AND A SHEAR LINE 
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED TO 7N58W.  POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND WITHIN 60 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEAR LINE.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITH THE SECOND LOW ALONG 25N40W 
22N42W 21N46W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM.  THESE SURFACE 
LOWS WILL MERGE AND MOVE N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
TO THE EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING 
FROM A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA IS PROVIDING DRY FAIR 
CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SM/WB