000
AXNT20 KNHC 260539
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W 
TO 3N20W TO 2N30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-5N 
BETWEEN 9W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 
19W-29W...AND FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 31W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 
35W-44W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL 
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA 
BAY TO 27N87W. A 30 NM BAND OF LOW CLOUD DELINEATES THE FRONT 
WITH NO PRECIPITATION. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER N 
THAT EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S 
LOUISIANA TO E TEXAS ALONG 32N81W 31N87W 30N95W 30N99W. THIS 
FRONT IS ALSO DRY BUT HAS A WINDSHIFT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO 
THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE FROM 23N97W TO 20N95W THAT HAS ONLY A DISTINCT 
WINDSHIFT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE...FOR THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT N OF THE 
GULF...FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ALSO DISSIPATE...AND FOR 10-20 
KT SE SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO SET IN.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. 15-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 25 KT 
WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE THE SURFACE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. A BATCH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COASTS OF 
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 81W-86W. MORE 
SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND VENEZUELA 
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N91W PRODUCING 
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE BASIN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR...SOME SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH THE TRADEWINDS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W. A WEAK 1016 
MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N45W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO 
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 
24N-32N BETWEEN 40W-46W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA