000 AXNT20 KNHC 251140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N12W TO 03N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 14W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 01N BETWEEN 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED FROM THE SW GULF NORTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND NE FLORIDA WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP MOVING QUICKLY NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FROM EAST OF THE ATLANTA GEORGIA AREA S-SW TO SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA WITH THE CONVECTION REACHING TO NEAR 29N90W. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND EASTERN MEXICO COAST N OF 20W DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SE TEXAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE GULF COAST BETWEEN 93W-97W AT 25/0900 UTC AND IS POISED TO USHER IN 10 TO 15 KT N-NE WINDS ACROSS THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ELSEWHERE... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...NE TO E TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE W ATLC. EXAMINING THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THEY REMAIN ELEVATED S OF 15N WHICH COINCIDES WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING WESTWARD AS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LARGELY SUPPORTS A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N66W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED W OF 60W WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY N OF 28N W OF 70W AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID-ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS BETWEEN 45W-60W DIPS SW TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N41W SW INTO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 25N50W THEN BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE TO 19N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST AND 120 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N13W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N25W TO 24N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN