000 AXNT20 KNHC 250558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N08W TO 03N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG 01S TO 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 13W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED FROM THE SW GULF NORTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND NE FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SE CONUS THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE... SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AS A 998 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE TAIL END OF AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FROM KENTUCKY S-SW TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE CONVECTION REACHING TO NEAR 29N93W. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 87W AND ALSO OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM 21N97W TO VERMILION BAY NEAR 29N92W. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...USHERING IN 10 TO 15 KT N-NE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ELSEWHERE... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND IS PROVIDING MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...NE TO E TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE W ATLC. EXAMINING THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THEY REMAIN ELEVATED S OF 15N WHICH COINCIDES WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE LARGELY SUPPORTS A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N67W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS W OF 60W WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY LATE FRIDAY N OF 27N W OF 70W AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MID-ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS BETWEEN 50W-60W DIPS SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N39W SW TO 22N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EAST AND 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 39N13W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N24W TO 24N42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN