000
AXNT20 KNHC 240555
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N08W 04N18W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 27W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
04N BETWEEN 06W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 
16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND 
NORTHWARD TO BEYOND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF... 
HOWEVER...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS 
ANALYZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE NEAR 26N80W WESTWARD TO 27N87W. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO 
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG 
NW OF A LINE FROM 19N96W TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. SOUTHERLY 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS 
EARLY FRIDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE E 
PACIFIC THAT IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER 
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AS A 
RESULT...MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AND ONLY A FEW 
ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM 12N-16N W 
OF 80W. FARTHER EAST...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING 
N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 18N E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE 
OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE W ATLC 
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA DIPPING TO 18N. THIS 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N42W 
W-SW ALONG 28N50W 25N63W TO 28N76W WHERE THE FRONT DISSIPATES TO 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN 
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB 
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 43N08W TO 32N21W TO 24N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN