000 AXNT20 KNHC 232347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W ALONG 3N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND INTO BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST S OF IVORY COAST FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 4W-7W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO FLARED UP ALONG THE AXIS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 30W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WIDESPREAD UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UP THE ERN CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE SE GULF. MAINLY SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW. HOWEVER...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA CONTINUING TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NE OF THE FRONT WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS SE LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT FOG STILL BEING REPORTED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF LATE FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF WRN CUBA. THIS SETUP IS PROVIDING EXTREMELY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 17N. SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W WHERE AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED WWD IN THE ELY TRADE WIND FLOW EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY TO THE N AROUND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC CREATING AN EVIDENT BOUNDARY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NRN ISLANDS...AND THE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TO THE S. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THIS STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING W ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN INCREASING PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR WRN ATLC...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS TO THE E BETWEEN 35W-70W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 28N72W CONTINUING TO NEAR 29N77W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS REMAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY 24/0000 UTC. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 17W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EUROPE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON