000 AXNT20 KNHC 221137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N13W 01N30W 01N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 11W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 25N62W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 25N TO 90W. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COASTAL PLAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER SE TEXAS WITH LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTING MARINE AND AVIATION GULF COAST OPERATIONS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE FAR NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 25N62W THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS THEN REINFORCED BY ANOTHER STRONG HIGH MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF QUEBEC AND EMERGING INTO THE ATLC SE OF THE MID-ATLC STATES. ALSO OF NOTE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ADVECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 60W-77W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED S OF 35N OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND W ATLC W OF 55W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 25N62W. INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS MAINLY W OF 50W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W THEN SW ALONG 24N40W TO 21N47W WHERE THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND BEGINS DISSIPATING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO 18N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N37W TO 20N41W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 34W AND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM SW SURINAME NEAR 03N57W TO 10N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER A LARGE AREA WITHIN 400 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N57W TO 14N47W OVER THE OPEN ATLC WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF GUYANA THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE E OF 35W...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N15W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN