000
AXNT20 KNHC 212353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE 
COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 3N20W TO EQ30W TO 1S40W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 
12W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N70W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W PRODUCING 
10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE GULF ARE NOW IN THE 70'S. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... 
...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE 
GULF...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES E OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM E 
TEXAS TO S GEORGIA.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS IS ALSO PRODUCING 
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
WITH 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY VOID OF SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN 
MAINLY S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 
63W-73W...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
TRADEWINDS TO MOVE PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER TRINIDAD AND 
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN 
HAS CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS MENTIONED...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 
28N70W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N41W 23N50W 21N60W MOVING SE. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 24N. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 
39W-47W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF SURINAME 
FROM 10N52W TO 6N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
MOSTLY INLAND OVER GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 
3N-6N BETWEEN 52W-59W. FURTHER E...A 1030 MB HIGH IS W OF 
PORTUGAL NEAR 37N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. IN 
THE TROPICS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OFF THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 9N28W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH 
SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N31W TO 21N40W WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA