000
AXNT20 KNHC 202315
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE 
COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 04N20W TO 03N30W TO 2N40W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26N-40W...AND BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N79W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT 
SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. 
EXPECT...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH 
MOVES SE TO 27N70W.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES 
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE 
CARIBBEAN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TRADEWINDS 
TO MOVE PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS W ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N52W 27N60W 
24N67W MOVING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF FRONT N 
OF 28N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 28N ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT 
BETWEEN 48W-65W. FURTHER E NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AT 34N20W A 
1028 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING SW TO 20N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE 
COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
E OF 45W. IN THE TROPICS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO 
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N27W. EXPECT...THE 
COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 
32N40W TO 21N50W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED GALE 
FORCE WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 28N.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA