000
AXNT20 KNHC 192337
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 5N10W TO 4N20W TO THE 
EQUATOR AT 42W CONTINUING SW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S48W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 4W-7W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 23W-26W...FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 47W-52W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 28N86W PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING S INTO 
THE NE FLORIDA WATERS AND JUST WENT OVER JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA 
AND DROPPED SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. 
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO DIP S TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PATCHES 
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE 
CARIBBEAN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TRADEWINDS 
TO MOVE PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS W ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.   
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N65W 29N74W MOVING 
SE. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E NEAR THE 
CANARY ISLANDS A 1021 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC WITH 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 20N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-80W 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH NEAR 27N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. IN THE TROPICS A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 
10N24W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N50W TO 26N60W TO THE N BAHAMAS WITH 
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT 
N OF 28N.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA