000
AXNT20 KNHC 191142
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM SW AFRICA NEAR 9N12W 5N19W 3N28W 1N35W 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/ 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF 
GHANA IN W AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE 
EQUATOR E OF 8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF INTO THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 
MB HIGH S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 29N87W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI WITH WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF 
BASIN PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE GULF THIS MORNING 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW GULF. DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES 
OF FOG ARE W OF LINE FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO TAMPICO 
MEXICO. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE N OF 28N W OF 89W TO 
THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER AND INLAND OVER MEXICO S OF TAMPICO 
TO JUST E OF VERACRUZ. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF 
THROUGH MON WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF ON TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE 
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING SOME PATCHES 
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 71W-81W. TRADE 
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE SURFACE 
RIDGE N OF THE AREA DRIFTS SLOWLY SE AND STRENGTHENS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN 
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N58W. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES 
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 
32N48W 25N57W OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 
23N63W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE AREA S OF 28N 
MOSTLY W OF 50W THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. A 
LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC WELL N OF THE AZORES  
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND INTO E ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 26W. A JET 
STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS RIDING N ALONG THE W 
PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITHIN 150/250 NM OF LINE FROM 18N56W 
TO 29N22W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE 
LOCATED JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM 10N-23N E OF 40W 
LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW