000
AXNT20 KNHC 162327
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED FEB 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N13W 
SOUTH-WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 1N30W EQ35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 1S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 
20W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 
41W-45W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ESE SFC 5-15 KT FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ARE EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW 
DIFFLUENT WINDS PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING 
CONVECTION. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE 
WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W TO INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH NO 
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SHEAR/REMNANT CLOUD LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW BASIN FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA 
NEAR 14N83W. CONVERGING NE AND TRADE WINDS ALONG THE AXIS ARE 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE 
ACROSS THE AREA...TURNING NE NEAR 77W. THIS FLOW IS BANKING SOME 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING THE 
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 14N W OF 78W. FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING 
WIT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES. AS THE SHEAR 
LINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE 
NORTHERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N42W TO 
HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N55W 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND 
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1031 MB HIGH 34N9W. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS SUPPORTED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N25W. 
LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH 
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA