000
AXNT20 KNHC 161755
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED FEB 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W THROUGH 3N20W 
1N30W AND CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 9W-19W... AND 
FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 23W-52W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA 
NEAR 37N75W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO E TEXAS NEAR 
30N94W. 10 KT SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N 
OF 25N W OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF AND OVER FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW WINDS 
PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT... 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE W GULF W 
OF 90W TO INCREASE TO 20 KT. ALSO EXPECT MORE FAIR WEATHER OVER 
THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO JAMAICA AT 
18N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. 
RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 
80W-89W. MORE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 15-20 
KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1010 MB LOW AT 9N75W IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-8N 
BETWEEN 75W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE NOTED. EXPECT...THE TRADEWINDS TO ADVECT MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N47W TO 
HAITI ALONG 27N53W 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
28N28W. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W 
OF 60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
10W-60W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.     

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA