000
AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST TUE FEB 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA AT 6N11W THROUGH 
2N20W AND CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W TO 1S30W TO THE NE 
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ABOUT 
150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-27W. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST 
FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 34W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT 
DISSIPATED EARLIER PERSIST IN THE GULF...MAINTAINING FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OF 5-15 
KT GENERATED BY THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN CHARACTERIZE THE 
ENTIRE GULF AT THIS TIME. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW PREVAILS 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...SAME WIND PATTERN AND FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH MOIST TRADE WINDS 
GENERATING RAINSHOWERS BETWEEN THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND CUBA. 
SHOWERS EXTEND FURTHER NORTH FROM CUBA DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO EASTERN CUBA. BANKING LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SW BASIN IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COSTA RICA COAST BETWEEN 80W-84W. 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LOCALIZED N OF VENEZUELA FROM 12-15N 
BETWEEN 65W-70W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
REGION. EXPECT...THE TRADEWINDS TO ADVECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N64W 
TO 29N69W MOVING SE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC...BEING REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...FROM 30N59W 
TO 23N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH N OF 27N. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 29N35W. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W 
OF 65W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE TO 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/FG