000
AXNT20 KNHC 151732
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST TUE FEB 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA AT 6N11W THROUGH 
2N20W AND CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W TO 1S30W TO THE NE 
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN AND 6W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 
21W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-1N 
BETWEEN 33W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 40W-52W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 28N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT 5-10 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW WINDS PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND BE REPLACED BY A 
SURFACE RIDGE AND MORE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS... HONDURAS ...N GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 13N-18N 
BETWEEN 83W-91W. MORE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER E CUBA...ALONG 
THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 72W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1009 MB LOW AT 
9N75W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER INLAND N COLOMBIA AND 
IS ALSO TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
ALONG 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER 
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED N 
OF NW VENEZUELA. EXPECT...THE TRADEWINDS TO ADVECT MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 
35N63W TO 31N74W MOVING SE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...FROM 32N60W TO 
THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE TROUGH. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N37W. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N W 
OF 70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
10W-70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE SE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 32N45W TO 22N60W 
TO N OF PUERTO RICO WITH CONVECTION.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA