000 AXNT20 KNHC 151111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N11W SW ALONG 2N20W 2S35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 44W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. CUTS THROUGH THE SE THIRD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH AND OVER MOST OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N89W...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT SE RETURN FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AND INTO SE TEXAS. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS INDICATED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS OF 3000 FT. FURTHER INLAND VICTORIA HAS REPORTED VISIBILITIES OF ONE-HALF TO A ONE-QUARTER OF A MILE IN FOG. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NE BRAZIL AND THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT SW FLOW NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH WAS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE BASIN ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANTS OF A SHEAR AXIS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS BEING OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS BY LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN. WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...TURNING NE ALONG 76W...AND BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE BASIN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA COASTLINES BETWEEN 80W-84W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS EMERGED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND IS NOW SITUATED ALONG 73W/74W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED N OF 25N W OF 58W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FURTHER EAST...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERED THE AREA NEAR 32N25W AND CONTINUED THROUGH 31N40W 31N50W TO 28N63W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE ENTRANCE OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE TROUGH BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N35W. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING ACROSS THE STATIONARY FRONT...EXPECT THE FEATURE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF 55W OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEW COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB