000
AXNT20 KNHC 150551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
7N12W SW ALONG 2N20W 1S35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF 
THE AXIS W OF 44W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 33W...AND BETWEEN 38W AND 44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EAST 
COAST OF THE U.S. CUTS THROUGH THE SE HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 28N89W...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT 
IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE 
BASIN. LIGHT SE RETURN FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE 
SIERRA MADRE AND INTO SE TEXAS. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
VERACRUZ INDICATED BROKEN CEILINGS OF 1500 FT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS 
WERE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF IN ADVANCE 
OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS DOMINATE THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NE BRAZIL AND THE 
FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO. DIFFLUENT SW FLOW NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH WAS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A 
DISSIPATING SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS 
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS BEING OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED OVER BELIZE 
AND HONDURAS BY LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS THE 
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF 
HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS 
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN. 
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...TURNING NE 
AT 76W...AND BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF 
THE BASIN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA COAST BETWEEN 80W-84W. 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS 
THE AREA THROUGH 32N35W...BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT THROUGH 32N40W 29N60W TO 25N67W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A 
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF BOTH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF 
THIS FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB 
HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO THE 
REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING ACROSS THE STATIONARY 
FRONT...EXPECT THE FEATURE TO DISSIPATE EAST OF 55W OVER THE 
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO 
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT SLATED TO 
MOVE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY TUE AS A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN CONUS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

COBB