000
AXNT20 KNHC 142322
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON FEB 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA AT 
6N11W SW ALONG 2N20W 3N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 
5S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM S OF 4N W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
28N88W...PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE 
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SW BASIN...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE MEXICO COAST FROM VERACRUZ TO MATAMOROS. 
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE NW BASIN FROM 15N-20N W OF 
81W FROM THE PREVIOUS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND 
STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE 
...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA...TURNING 
NE AT 76W...AND BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR SW BASIN 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA COAST BETWEEN 80W-84W. THESE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
ADVECT SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL 
ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
IN THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 66W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N38W... 
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 30N52W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT TO EASTERN CUBA ALONG 27N60W 25N66W 20N75W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF BOTH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF 
THIS FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB 
HIGH NEAR 28N36W. THIS SYSTEM IS GIVING FAIR WEATHER TO THE 
REGION. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE WEST ATLC 
WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 16 HOURS. 
THEN...IT WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A 
COLD FRONT AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN 
CONUS SEABOARD. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA